A panel of experts at the University of Colorado School of Medicine had some good news this morning: we may have passed our peak here in Colorado.
Of the 8,675 cases there are 374 deaths. Less than 2% of those with the illness are under age 18, compared to the population of 22% children. This week there are only 4 children admitted to Children’s hospital with COVID-19, two in the ICU. There is a leveling-off of patients presenting to the hospitals and less ICU admissions.
So social distancing has flattened the curve and no hospitals were overextended or lacked ventilators. The initial R naught (the number of people infected from one individual) of each infected person spreading to 4 is now down to 1.5. A study from Singapore showed that 7% of cases came from presymptomatic persons. The infection can be transmitted 2 to 3 days before symptoms show. Of 121 healthcare workers exposed 35% developed symptoms but only 2.5% tested positive.
Our own experience with testing has been equally frustrating. The virus can be present for weeks but usually rapidly declines after 7 days. The PCR test (polymerase chain reaction test – the standard nasal swab being conducted to test for Corona virus) is said to be 75% accurate in detecting viral RNA. Even patients we’ve tested during the first 4 days of typical symptoms have been negative. Other viruses identified at Children’s Hospital in the last month include rhinovirus, adenovirus, enterovirus and human metapneumovirus, which can all cause fevers and respiratory illnesses.
However, many people we are treating have the unusual symptoms and course that seems unique to COVID. Not all have fever. They experience chills, fatigue, sore throat, then improve. A day later they are having chest tightness, trouble breathing, making it difficult to talk or walk, and upper abdominal pain. They feel worse at night and better in the morning. Symptoms can last for weeks. Lung specialists describe several different effects the virus can have. ARDS (adult respiratory distress syndrome) is a diffuse loss of protective protein that causes the air sacs to collapse. The pulmonary disease in the second week is described as a cytokine storm, where the immune system overreacts and damages the lungs.
Testing is less accurate when the prevalence of a disease is low. In Colorado 1.4% have been affected, in comparison with Wuhan where 5-10% were. Experts and individuals are waiting for antibody testing to see if they are immune and if so for how long. Immunity in similar infections has been shown to last anywhere between 3 weeks and 3 months, as opposed to diseases like measles and chickenpox which confer lifelong immunity.
Pediatricians are seeing few patients in the office these days, which raises the concern for a future epidemic of preventable diseases from a delay in vaccinations. Most clinics, like Ebert Family Clinic, are only seeing healthy patients or those with noninfectious complaints such as eczema and lacerations. Anyone with respiratory symptoms or fever is seen by Telehealth. This is effective because COVID, like most illnesses in the community, is usually mild and self-limited. Antibiotics are rarely indicated. A recent study showed that of several hundred children diagnosed with community-acquired pneumonia, those given antibiotics had the same outcomes at those who were not treated, with 4% of each group needing hospitalization for worsening symptoms.
Telehealth does not allow for auscultation of the heart and lungs (listening with a stethoscope), but the vital signs including oxygen saturation, heart rate and temperature along with the patient’s history usually give the provider enough information to make treatment and testing decisions. A face-to-face video interaction is ideal, protecting the patient and provider from exposure to infection. The expanded use of Telehealth is one of the good outcomes of this pandemic, especially in states like Colorado with far flung rural populations.
The University of Colorado is doing 3000 telehealth visits daily. Specialists at Children’s are ramping up their services online while accepting the sickest patients in the state for inpatient care. They have the largest number of doctors in Colorado, many of whom are in research and can transfer to frontline and ICU duties. The University does 500 million dollars of sponsored research every year, with over 1000 studies. Many of these are on hold now, but with the capacity to initiate new trials within a week and laboratories adjacent to clinical care sites, CU has been tapped for many COVID-related studies. They are testing several antiviral drugs, including the new product from Gilead laboratories Remdesivir. There are also studies on disease modifying treatments such as steroids to prevent future problems caused by the infection. Other trials focus on sample collecting and processing. Some studies may show results within weeks but others take months or years to determine effect.
The University was one of the first centers to use convalescent plasma to treat COVID. The hope is that antibodies from previously-infected and recovered individuals can be lifesaving for severe cases, although the best timing of such treatment, originally used one hundred years ago in the influenza epidemic, is not yet determined. Plasma donations can be arranged by visiting the UC Health website. Since most people will not need hospitalization, instructions for home care can be found on the CDC website.
Vaccine development will proceed over the next 12 months. Until then, lifting of current social restrictions will depend upon having adequate and accurate testing to find cases early enough to quarantine patients and public health workers to trace contacts. Antibody testing must be done and repeated over months and years to determine susceptibility. Continued use of masks in public and the prohibition of large gatherings may continue for a year.